budfox ~ on the dow jones newswires

Afternoon all,
For those interested, here's Tony Locantro's interview with the Dow Jones Newswires last Thursday.
Good luck to all believers,
Carl.


Thursday July 15, 2:34 PM
INTERVIEW: More Upside For Gold, Silver This Yr And Beyond
By Jim Hawe

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

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TOKYO (Dow Jones)--He was bang on target with his forecasts for 2003. And now, the targets have been raised. Gold and silver are on track for more gains in 2004, and beyond.

Tony Locantro, a senior private client adviser with Paterson Securities in Perth, predicted in early 2003 that the price of gold would be sitting at US$418 by the end of the year.

Come the last day of trading in 2003, gold was hovering around US$417 with the upper end of its trading range brushing against his US$418 target.

Locantro says he was surprised, and just plain lucky. "It was like I kicked a ball of the side of the boot and a gust of wind sent it through for six points."

He also recommended a move into silver when prices were still languishing below US$5/oz last year. Silver surged to US$8.29 by April this year, a stunning 68% rise in just six months.

"My selection principle was based simply on shutting my eyes and imagining gold in roughly 12 months' time," Locantro said.

So where does he see precious metals going when he shuts his eyes and rubs his temples now?

"I would suggest a year-end trading range of US$435 to US$450 for gold," he said, adding US$442 would be a likely landing spot for gold on the last day of trade this year.

This would mark a handsome improvement for gold, which just recently worked its way back over the key US$400/oz line, and would be an improvement over this year's high of around US$430 recorded in early April.

Locantro said he was originally looking at an upside target of US$470 for 2004, but lowered this target as the run up to the November U.S. elections could serve as a "hand brake" for the market.

Fundamentals remain very solid, according to Locantro, but the U.S. elections and short-term volatility associated with interest rates could slow its climb.

Locantro expects gold buying to pick up steam once the U.S. election are behind us.

"From 2005 onward, it could be an open slather," he said.

Silver May Offer A More Explosive Upside

Looking at the big swings in silver price over the past 12 months, Locantro says forecasting silver has become a "dangerous exercise."

Still, silver offers the greatest leverage in a precious metals rally since this market has been experiencing significant supply deficits for the past 13 years, he said.

The possibility that increased investment demand could trigger a mixture of short covering and irrational exuberance as certain levels are reached also makes silver a compelling play, he said.

"Silver offers the more explosive upside scenario over the medium-term; however, for my 2004 year-end target I'm going to run with US$7.45," he said.

Spot silver was quoted at US$6.60 Thursday in Asia, up from US$6.44 Wednesday.

Locantro will be conducting an investment seminar in Melbourne in early August where he plans to share his thoughts on a host of subjects from precious metals to picking the best mining stocks.

There he plans to explain whether we are entering a precious metals boom that could rival the last great run between 1985 and 1987.

"We have yet to put enough distance between us and the Nasdaq crash; however, the fundamentals for precious metals and base metals must be viewed as being the most favorable in many years," said Locantro. "Gold and silver should be seen as having the potential to surprise to the upside."