In Wayne's world we have a $1.5B surplus coming. Unfortunately, much lower than Treasury predicted commodity prices have occurred, and this means a black hole of around $10B.
The Carbon Tax backflip, after just seven weeks, on a major element of the Tax (minimum floor price of $15) means a likely $25B shortfall over the coming years.
Other tax receipts eg Capital Gains tax are tracking lower than predicted too.
So all up minimum $10B less in budget receipts.
On the spending side we have Dental $4B, Gonksi $5B (though exact amount from Government not yet known, national disability insurance scheme $7B, boat people changes $1B, and extra boat people over estimates at least another $300M.
Now dental is proposed to start the following year to keep it out of this year's expenses but these programs are all in the pipeline.
So receipts drop $10B and expense go up more than $10B!
I am reminded of Mark Twain who said 'He was unsure whether the government was led by smart people just having us on, or by idiots who really mean it!'
