Thought I'd start a new topic on this as there has been a lot of data being thrown around. As I see it known data is:
Buffalo recoverable oil 31m bbl as per CVN.
CAPEX USD150m as per CVN
OPEX USD 100m pa. CVN estimated USD80m to USD100m
Recovery rate. This is the hard on. Peak production by BHP was 40,000bbl per day. Last was around 5,000bbl per day? But let's say average of 20,000 bbl per day.
Therefore 31,000,000/20,000 = 1550 days or 4.25 years but let's say 5 years.
So OPEX = USD500m (USD100m x 5 years)
Total CAPEX and OPEX = USD650m (USD500m + USD150m)
So cost per bbl = USD 21 (USD650m/31,000,000 bbl).
Revenue. It's sweet oil so let's say USD60/bbl
So total revenue is say USD $1,860,000,000. (USD60 x 31,000,000)
Gross return USD1,210,000,000. (USD1860,000,000 - USD 650,000,000
Need to get other costs, taxes and PSC costs. Can anyone help with usual PSC structure and I can build a spreadsheet to estimate returns etc?
Happy to be wrong on data if it leads to better data.
What I really like is the low cost of production ie USD21/bbl. Certainly helps in any stress test of viability
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