Hi MW3,I definitely see an marked increase in manufacture and...

Hi MW3,
I definitely see an marked increase in manufacture and sale of both relenza and tamiflu occuring this year.
My only concern is sales after the 1 to 3 year horizon.
Lani will , I think become the preferred drug in the 1st world retail market,assuming it stacks up in trials, not because of efficacy, but for convenience..
But I think its price will be constrained by cheap generics of relenza.Have lots of confidence in the manufacturing capacity of the chinese, indians and others.

Also there is no compelling reason for "disaster stockpiles"[for want of a better term], maintained by governments, to be other than relenza generics and tamiflu[depending on resistence patterns].
If they can maintain these stockpiles at a fraction of the price of Lani, why change, when the older form will be as effective?

That is not to say that BTA might not be worth a lot more than it is now, just think that its value should be assessed on its income over the next 3 to 4 years
cheers