Buffett buys Gold., page-26

The debate on Gold vs stocks has always been heated.

I have watched and read a lot of the commentators.

A lot of the reason they get things 'wrong' is unexpected moves by the US Fed.

Then there is Covid-19 throwing a spanner in the works.

These guys who manage funds have to get not only their broad predictions right but their timing has to be right over a very tight margin for error.

I recall the IT bubble and how it took ages to deflate, housing and GFC same. During these times I couldn't believe the lag between what was objectively inevitable, and how it slowly, and painfully eventually unfolded.

Rickards makes a convincing case for a reversion to the gold standard. He also makes a case for the decline of the USD as world standard and the emergence of new currencies. China has been moving in this direction but there is pushback. A lot of elements are in play here and not all are predictable.

Rickards has no idea about climate change. He thinks it's some paranoid thing that's being used to manipulate. Whereas it's not just objectively real, it's shifting markets. Look at Tesla.

What many of them now do is to just back away after they've been incredibly bullish on gold and/or silver and tell you to only put 10% of your portfolio into this.

That's what comes from having your timing smashed.

I favour silver because of it's industrial applications including solar panels, and the supply -led shortage which is real. Also the refuge element. But I can't tell you when it's really going to go ballistic. If ever. The best we can look for is making sector shifts unless you're trading on technicals. Good luck with that...

But other metals such as nickel, PMs REs will be in favour as the US and EU seek other sources and move to become less China-dependent. This is something Rickards hasn't predicted. He hasn't predicted the colossal demand for nickel as signalled by Elon Musk. The brakes being taken off the US Fed for inflation signalling higher tolerance for inflation so they can keep the ship afloat (and limit social unrest) is telling in terms of the fact that there is going to be a rush for the exits in some areas. Airlines are being propped up and quite likely will be nationalised. The mania for privitisation is reversing.

Overall, I rate this as a defensive move by the Buffett camp who have made some colossal missteps in recent years.

They aren't leaders anymore but at least they are shifting focus.

Overall I think if you can find a decent exploration stock with reserve assets able to produce the PMs shift, the key metals like nickel are going to be a good move.

I've mentioned one above which I think is hugely undervalued, not least of which is because it's got Mark Creasy as a major shareholder and JVs with Creasy in highly prospective areas. But there are others out there I'm sure.

I don't go with the physical holdings thing because I cannot see society breaking down to that extent and in any case you're going to become vulnerable to theft. My views on this could change, but in terms of exposure I think a good producer/explorer holding Gold is well worth it.