"The US is in RECESSION and Stock Markets are in a BEARMARKET. Watch out below. Economic risks are the highest they have been for 3 years. US inflation is set to rise from 3% towards 4% or worse. The FED will not be able to ignore this. The ongoing and escalating global tariff war are the major reason. US employment is set to fall as 1m to 2m US government workers get fired in the next few months. US unemployment will rise from here. Corporate earnings will come under pressure. Geopolitical risks are also rising with a change in the World Order occurring before our eyes. Institutional investor surveys show overwhelmingly bullish positioning which is dangerous.
ALL PORTFOLIOS should have a LARGE WEIGHTING IN CASH to mitigate MARKET RISK. Corporate earnings are going to be under pressure while the forecast US recession plays out. We don’t know how severe it will be but need to HEDGE NOW.
The Atlanta FED indicator showing expected negative GDP growth in Q1*, and I suspect we’ll have negative growth also in Q2. Remember that Musk will be firing 1m to 2m government workers in the next few months. Treasury Secretary Bessent doesn’t appear to understand the threat & consequences of a Trade War and believes government workers need to be fired. The US is set up for higher inflation and recession.*Specifically, the Atlanta Fed now projects that the US economy will shrink by 2.8% in Q1 2025, which actually marks a deterioration from the projection it made last week that the economy would shrink by1.5% on the quarter."
