There is no doubt traders are all over NOR, but its chart and trading looks just like so many of the tech-hopeful. Have a look at ZIP, 1PG, RFN etc they are almost identical, just with slightly different time-scales.
They also have a similar history, listing (usually RTO) their advisor's, spruikers etc drum up interest on listing. Supported by the company announcing their milestones and exciting announcements as they go. Optimistically worded announcements in a hot sector mean retailers pile in, brokerage houses 'initiate coverage', pro traders see the volume and chart and buy in. This pushes up the price, retailers see this as 'big guys as confidence'. Its a self-full-filing price trajectory and helped even moreso where companies start churning out the news-flow.
Then, reality sets in.. basically its the exact reverse. News is not as many had hoped or posted predictions on HC (cash out, none in) which then stagnates. Big traders sell down, retailers see this as an opportunity to 'average down', 'top up' etc. Company might announce something to stem the price slide but if it seems to flaky it can appear desperate and amplify the process.
All the while, there are people scalping and trading along the way with a select few buying in with a genuine long term view. If you watch the chatter in the Day Trading forum, Twitter etc its interesting to observe the comments there about NOR, often before or just as these little runs happen. News helps spur their interest and they go in for scalp of the 5, 10 or 40% of the gain. Dedicated retailers see this as big guys buying in, when in many cases its not at all when you look at the broker data afterwards.
Posters will no doubt explain that NOR is different, that the announcement last week has changed everything, there are deals in the making. When this rerates it will re-rate to 20c etc. The past facts are though, the stock listed at 2c, that was the price that 12 months ago the instos valued the company. Its now trading over 100% up from there having delivered not a whole lot yet in terms of CORONA signings, revenue etc which was being talked about when it listed. So if somehow things change and the cash-burn slows and receipts start being received... things might cruise on back up, I think the fact that there is already a $40m valuation being placed on something for which yet the (potential customers) market has expressed little interest is a pretty big punt.
Luckily people have short or selective memories.. does no-one remember the 45% savings that enterprises would get using CORONA v1 ? I'm sure they would have.. but clearly the 45% savings still weren't enough to tempt them onto the platform. WorldPhone revenue was being touted as growing at an incredible rate.. now its not mentioned. CORONA v2 is going to offer companies savings on their phone bills, flexibility for employees etc.. Maybe its third time lucky?
On the bright side, each little mini-run like this allows an escape for disenchanted holders from higher prices. Over time as it trades sideways, most of the hangers on will most likely be in it for the long haul - or be more recent holders, sitting on no - or much lower losses. When the money starts flowing in, it should be less of a handbrake to see a trip to 20c so many are waiting for.
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