Building the Sales Bridge and Understanding the Strategy

Hi All

Thanks so much for joining in on the other discussion and providing the feedback.

The links and vids provided by@elecrick and@lazysuzanne and search stuff by @Inchiquin prompted me to think about this particular thread............more of a bottom approach this time.

I won't be double checking the numbers or previous stuff when writing this so if there are errors pls cut me some slack. Going for the 'vibe'.

Likewise, I have no problem whatsoever if you disagree with anything I write here. If you disagree though it would be appreciated if you pointed to some 'hard' stuff (which is a bit rich on my part given that I just said I am going with the 'vibe').

So. Here we go......................

Context:

Graziano dropped the figures 120,000 sales in 2024 (I actually expect more) and mentioned 60,000 'this' year.

Blair mentioned 'consumer'/'retail'(?) retail sales becoming the largest segment (currently) and dropped the 'acquisition' word (surprised me).

The update confirmed that the supply channel is actually 'proper' (as q2 sales exceeded - not by much but nonetheless - the q1 ordr book).

Sales 'Bridge':

I reckon 22 sales are still @40k (This could change given the impending sales into India but I still think all th JV 'springboard' stuff won't kick into Q1 or Q2 23).

So the pathway / bridge to 24 looks like...............@20-25K in 22, q3 and q4. Increasing to 35K in q1/Q2 in 23 (=60k for 'this rolling year") and going upto 55k in the last half 23 (90k for 23) then onto 120k for 24.

Sales Segments / profiles:

Until I heard Blair's thing I was thinking 70/30. Fleet/Retail. I now think in terms of 3 segments 30/30/30 (I know....Ha.). Share/Last Mile/Retail. Retail may now be the 'biggest' maybe 30/30/40. But I think that might go back to something like 25/50/25 next year. Why?

Drivers for Increase in Sales:
EV share is multi-pronged. 4 wheel, 2 wheel motorbike, scooter and bike.

Vmoto might go down the track of kick scooter via VMX but I think the $ stays with the scooters (2/3 wheel versions).

Retail is dependent on intercity charge networks / increased battery capacity (which VMT has a foot in but it might take a couple of years).

The last mile stuff though is closer term / more explosive. Why? All these unicorn/startups are discovering it is not as profitable as they thought and they have to reduce service levels (delivery times....10 minutes is stupid) and/or overlay the delivery revenue with advertising revenue (3 sided boxed, ultra-local, rapidly changing advertising)................Ad-moto.

So all these mobs will need to forward purchase or retro-fit current fleets to tap into the the extra revenue stream. Ad-Moto has global IP on this and have selected Grennmo / Vmoto as partners. (Btw.......check out Vickery's Linked in account...............seeing investment banks to expand etc......I could also do a numbers exercise............based on their sales projections in UK on a later post............but basically capturing 20% of the market is 'eye-watering')

Greenmo is tied up with VMT's endeavours in the 'last mile' stuff but also the 'share' and if you do some research on their plans........Wow!........Starting up an academy' for interns on a uni campus? Backed by Rabobank who want to flog Duths /euro businesses to the world.

JVs / Acquisitions
Charles and Ivan appear to have learnt some very hard lessons re acquisitions. Powereagle/ Battery&Power train related tech ventures were disasters. Every relationship they have entered into since has a large dollop of 'you show me and I will show you' foundations.

Teltonika for the IT/systems. Rabobank & Samatandar for finance for fleet/consumer finance. Greenmo for fleet management. Ad-moto for 'value-add' design features/revenue layering.

They dodged a bullet by avoiding an 'all-in' with Soco but the relationship could still be a win-win and Sherwin could maybe focus on the R&D (his first love obviously) and Vmoto could 'acquire' the other 50% of the manufacturing arm and lock in the rights to 'first use' of Sherwins IP. Just sayin.

As V pointed out (rather ruthlessly!) the idea of going downstream towards the end-user retail stuff is probably culturally ill-fitting.

So where does that leave us?

The recharging network/exchange stuff could be huge and the company mentioned moves in this area in Japan etc (maybe a rebirth of the venture that had a mis-step in the lead upto 'trial' to the recent Olympics...................the re-charge unit at Pro-Play noted by Vickery)

So putting that to one side I think the 'acquisitions' could actually mean more 'JVs' or deepening Jvs in the manufacturing / master franchising opportunities with existing / dormant partners ( I do not think any new ventures will be struck up 'cold' not will they try to pick 'tech or powertrain winners').....................So maybe..........
Rabo Motos in Brazil
Eclimo in Malaysia
Hero in India / Revolt?. Maybe not so. I think they will go with a fleet/last mile option there like a replacement for Bird.
Thailand?

USA:
So much to talk about here but maybe someone else can grab the baton.

So many holes in the above but hopefully that means you can 'fill in' for me and the others here.

Anyone want to play?

Cheers