The PFS results were within expectations for a number of LTH. LOM 12 Y, NPV up to A$500M and. Opex also within range. It seems some holders were counting on an already longer LOM and lower Capex.
-What maybe some holders failed to see is that COB needed to come up with a PFS fast as the potential customers needed to know whether this project could fly or not and as a result whether they could source 4000 tons from it within a few years or not. In the past few months major car manufacturers have been awarding huge contracts for EV batteries ( recall the US$48 billion by VW in May among others) and the manufacturers need to secure Nickel, Lithium but most importantly Cobalt which is in really short supply going forward. They do not need Cobalt critically now but by 2021 and even more 2022 and beyond as EV production increases dramatically. To clarify Cobalt is an absolutely essential material: it stabilizes the others components and basically prevent explosions. For the US and Chinese govt Cobalt is classified as a strategic metal and more and more so. A few days ago the Indian govt entered the fray by asking state companies to buy Lithium and Cobalt mines ! The race for supplies is on and the chinese are way ahead.
-Anyway, if around 10% of holders sold their shares, 90% kept them and much more importantly COB's key partner and likely customer LGI was happy with the results.
COB mgmt delivered and will start negotiations for project financing while working on initiatives to improve several aspects but this has already presented by other posters.
One highlight though: for me COB financials single biggest potential upside is in the Life of Mine: in the PFS it was only 13 y versus 20 to 25Y in the PFS/ BFS of other projects in Australia. Since the mgmt is optimistic about an LOM of 20y (see my previous post above) an NPV of at least $900M is reachable. It is also well funded with $ 9.8M as of July 1st so we should be covered til BFS release.
-For me the figures in the PFS were vintage COB i.e. conservative.From now on I am only expecting upsides regarding mineral resource, metal recovery, power cost, tailing storage facility and maybe more.
-Beside a 200o ton/ y mine in Morocco I could not find another well established Pure/ primary Cobalt company with significant current or upcoming production. The only other one will open in Canada but they will only go as far as a concentrate = missing the huge financial bonanza of the production of Cobalt Sulphate like COB.( usually you will only 30% of the Cobalt metal price when you supply concentrate)
-In the coming weeks and months a different kind of investors will come on board.
For me at the current MC of $ 75M COB is cheap.
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