ATRUM COAL LIMITED (ASX:ATU) - Bulk "Sample" Permit - Did I miss something ?, 20489603, page-6 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by wirapundi ↑

I think you make a very good point Fredbear. On one hand Atrum have been saying (for a number of years) how Asian, European and North American anthracite end-users are beside themselves trying to get their hands on GH product, and on the other hand we are basically sitting idle at GHN with the recent Bulk Sample Permit seemingly gathering dust. These are my thoughts (for what it’s worth):

Atrum remains different to most investment prospects, in that you have essentially half the company owned by the founders. Obviously this amount of investment = control, and they are, and always have been incredibly frugal when it comes to diluting their investment. I see this as a positive (in the long term at least).

The current situation at GHN is on the back of a combination of different factors, but ultimately that they haven’t yet been able to secure agreeable finance or JV partner. If the PE deal that was nearly signed and sealed H1 2015 had of indeed gotten over the line, Groundhog would be further along.

Ultimately that PE deal broke down on the back of the founders falling out (as we all know. This was a fcuking disaster). In the meantime the coal sector had (past tense) been completely hammered and this along with a clearly dysfunctional management meant attracting new investment was never going to happen quickly (again, not at an agreeable level. I think if they were happy to accept investment at any valuation, they could have secured it by now. As a comparison, have a look into BRL. They have just diluted nearly 50% of the company to secure investment in developing their coal assets. Atrum clearly aren’t this impatient).

Given the stunning rebound in coke prices, perhaps all of this will benefit Atrum when they eventually do sign a deal for investment/finance. The deal with JOGMEC is a basic indication of the valuation they have in regard to the wider coalfield. If it took a 50m valuation to agree investment at Panaroma, it would take several times this to secure investment at GHN.

Separate to all of this, a deal with ACG has been perused probably on the back of the first point I make. Atrum prefer the opportunity to develop Groundhog with the minimum dilution possible. This ACG strategy should be proved successful (or otherwise) sooner rather than later. I hope on this occasion, Atrum deliver on their promise of interest in the product with signed and sealed sales/offtake agreements.

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Very good assumptions.Important to have disimilar views on this Company DWJD

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