Bull Elephant Candle $33 Target?, page-69

Brent first regained US$60 on 08 February- it is now over $75.50- more than 25% higher.

On the above mentioned date

• WPL ended on $25.29
• OSH $4.12
• BPT $1.81, OK, special reasons for BPT.

The SPs for the three oilers were already falling before that date. They reached their pandemic highs with Brent in the US$50s.

The oilers ran hard when vaccine approvals were first announced- from the $30s to the $50s. Oiler SPs ran hard as well- until January.

So my take is that punters piled into oilers on good vaccine news- and the POO took off at the same time. Since then my reading of the situation is that Oz oiler investors have been taking note more of vaccine/covid/lockdown setbacks than the POO.

The disconnect between oilers and the POO was there long before tax loss selling and maybe even index balancing.

The punters who invest in oil are different than the punters who invest in Ozzie oilers. And, of course, a lot of the increase in the POO is because of actual demand for crude that has been increasing.

My belief is that the drivers for the sustained rally in the POO are sector fundamentals- the recovery stage of the oil cycle.

Mr Market may continue to ignore the POO for a while- short or long- but I think the fundamentals will become compelling. So I have been happy to increase my oilers to about 40% of my portfolio.

Now, I reckon that I just have to wait- with no real idea of how long that wait may be. I do not even know if Brent at US$80 will do the trick.

Happy to be contradicted.

IMHO DYOR -not financial advice- be good to your mum- etc etc