Afternoon all. Been spending the weekend having a look at the...

Afternoon all. Been spending the weekend having a look at the CSL chart over the bull market and noticed a few things. These are probably irrelavent but I found it interesting so thought I would post it :)

During the period up from 2003 to the peak in 2008 CSL had periods where it had noticable drift downs (as opposed to sideways movement) before the next surge up. I am going to examine the last 3 of these, including the current one.

Dec 2 2004 -> Apr 5 2005 (8.73, 11.83) 35% gain over 4 months, Dec 2 start was a higher low in relation to preceeding down period.

Apr 5 2005 -> Jun 6 2005 (high 11.83, low 9.65) 18.5% drop over 2 months. End date Jun 6 was a higher low. Broke below 200 day sma during down trend but the gap between the lows broke back through 200 day sma. Broke back below 200 day sma for the higher low. Exited down trend with 2 consecutive gaps up, nearlly 3

Jun 6 2005 -> May 1 2006 (9.65, 19.67) 104% gain over 11 months

May 1 2006 -> Sep 20 2006 (High 19.67, Low 15.40) 21.7% drop over 5 months. End date Sep 20 was a higher low. Broke below 200 day sma during down trend but the gap between the lows broke back through 200 day sma. Broke back below 200 day sma for the higher low. Exited down trend with 3 consecutive gaps up.

Sep 20 2006 -> May 15 2008 (15.40, 42.33) 175% gain over 20 months

May 15 2008 -> Jun 9 2009 (High 42.33, Low 28.11) 33.5% drop over 12 months. Possible end date Jun 9 was a higher low. Broke below 200 day sma during down trend but the gap between the lows broke back through 200 day sma. Broke back below 200 day sma for the higher low. Possibly broke down trend with 2 consecutive gaps up, possibly 3 on Monday. Unlike last two occurences though these did not occur the days after the higher low, instead 7 days later.

As can be seen in each down move a break below the 200 day SMA occured to form the low. Price then broke back above the 200 day sma before breaking back below it to form a higher low and the end point of our down trend. Clear breakout from down trend was marked by consecutive gap up days.

The other things to notice are that each time the drop has been larger and has been roughly over a time period 2.5 times the previous drop. Following each drop the gain has been larger and the period of gain has been roughly 2 - 2.5 times the length of the previous rise.

So if it all holds we are in for 40 months of up momentum for CSL with a 200%+ increase in price. I know unlikely, but hey, let me dream :)