What I'm saying though is the bottom of the channel we've just fallen out of Friday was at XAO 3940. So we're currently 100 points below and need to get back up to 3940 as quick as possible or its dowwwwwwwn to 3000 (which aside from being the bottom of the channel, is the area where the index hung around for 5 years prior to the latest bull market, so an indestructable strong support level for now).
If anyone's interested, some other ramblings:
From the June 08 high of 6400ish we travelled down along a channel, testing the top twice, the bottom twice, then failed to get to the top a third time (got only halfway up), so we immediately broke down at 4900 in Sep to (as you'd expect) run to the bottom of the next channel down (at 3940).
Now I expected this to be the bottom as it is very rare for a drop of 2 channels before recovery plus the weekly is very oversold. This (plus a look at the channels since 1987), led to my call of a bottom the other day. The break of 3940 seemed to confirm against the odds that we were indeed breaking down though. Friday night in the US makes this a bit uncertain. I'm really not certain now whether that's the bottom for now or we retest 3940 then collapse. I note that in May we actually broke to the upside for 1 weekly close (ie. false break) above the channel. This may be the same.
Terry Laundry has been suggesting a drop and no rally until mid-November (http://www.ttheory.com/). So if he's right, maybe we test 3940 again for a while then perhaps some news is the trigger for a fall.
Voltaire and other dates gurus: Would be interested in your next key dates if US doesn't fall (but doesn't rally either) on Monday night. Anything around mid-Nov perhaps?
One other comment. A strong case for the downside would be that the weekly charts for the Nikkei and in particular the Hang Seng do suggest quite strongly that we have the extra 25% to go. ie: - Nikkei (now 8000) has a top of 18300, shoulder level looks pretty clear as 12000 so suggests roughly 6000 target. - Hang Seng (now 12600) has a top of 32000, shoulder at 20000 so target clearly 8000. Would be interested in anyone else's view of these 2 charts.
That's enough rambling 4 now. Hope my comments help someone
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