"There seems to be a general view that nothing will make gold juniors rise in price. That their gold resources are no good because it costs money to explore them, that they will have to dilute the company to bring them into production and then this will be no good as production will not meet expectations and the company will fail."
SP
Thats not negative these are just relevant risk considerations and all those risk and timing considerations are relevant to spec investments. Isnt HC a discussion board about share investments? Are not the examples of BDG, VRE, Croseus relevant to risk and should considered thoughtfully in your gold investment strategy?
Shouldn't we also consider the various elements of our own skill mix in our investment decision? Youve been watching HC for long enough how many of your fellow spec investors have the skills to DYOR?
Where did anyone say that nothing will make spec rise?
Do me a favor and write to Sinclair and ask him . "I share your bullishness about gold I currently hold a diversified portfolio of Australian gold juniors. I dont hold any physical gold or large producers is this the right mix?
and see what he says :)
Youve got to remember your arguing with a bunch of gold bulls not arguing with a bunch of non believers. Its a debate about the right strategy to ride the gold bull. Gold is showing major resistance at the current 940 level, if it breaks through then its off to the races again, if it doesnt there might need to be some consolidation before that resistance is broken.
What is wrong with considering these elements. If the gold price rises 5% and the AUD rises 5% its net neutral to our returns against AUD. Globally diversified investors will consider such things when allocating dollars toward AUD Golds. If Oil rises 10% at the same time in USD terms is this not relevant to costs for AUD producers ?. Oil and AUD rising together has a double whammy impact on costs to producers.
How many AUD junior explorers are have got potential anyway (there isnt more than a handful). Why shouldn't we take the greater market into consideration, the recent pull back in equities smashed first class prospects like PRE and EXM (who are still under negative pressure) while the metal has held ground. Is it not it prudent under the current circumstances to be overweight the metal until the smoke clears?
Is it not relevant that mid tier producers like LGL, KCN and SGX seem to be struggling? Is their not an apparent sequence of classes that rise in order eg Large, Mid, Junior?
Is it not relevant that large producer like NCM seem to be weathering the equities storm more effectively than the Juniors who have halved (or worse) in a month.
There are folks on HC who have in the last few years gained access via self managed super and just learning their investment skills. Many of these folk are going "all in" on the specs with their retirement nest egg. You can tell this by their cry's of pain when we have major spec downturns.
To be honest I feel a bit protective of them
Whats wrong with suggesting that their is a more prudent way of investing in the gold bull than going "all in" on specs ?. Specs will have their turn but IMO its not now.
You seem to be the voice of your own religion rather than one of reason . Dogma has no place in ones investment decisions.
