bullish hammer reversal.., page-111

There have been many occasions where an eagerly awaited announcement did not trigger any additional price appreciation and the gains were anticipated within the run up prior to the ann.
It is worthwhile to discuss wether this to be a possible scenario for our expected results.


First some of the negatives surrounding the story:

1,
In our particular story, the partner disclosure for development could be a larger trigger than the announced test results as positive results from the test could already be partly priced in.

2,
Market will also take into account that ANP lost its former partner for ATL1102 development later in the game, well after the very successful phase 1 results.
This will always create a certain caution.

3,
In the period running up to the news we saw immense trading activity and high volatility, that usually creates very high expectations and the slightest disappointment in results or criticism towards the validity of the testing regime could trigger a short term selloff.
( I find that particular criticism unlikely as we follow similar standards as Genzyme did with Mipomersen )

4,
We still have very little clarity about the fact wether an accumulator is partly responsible for the immense buying over the last weeks or the rise is mainly due to short term traders who exploit the great fundamentals.



Now to the positives, which are many:

1,
What offsets this risk is the range of applications for ATL1103, ranging from our lucrative near term target acromegaly ( particularly since it is an orphan drug indication and is speedily promoted within the FDA regulatory system ) to forms of cancer, which would necessitate long winded trials and be only accessable for commercialisation in years to come, hence not directly a price sensitive issue at this point in time.
Diabetic retinopathy and diabetic nephropathy are medium term targets and would not directly influence shareprice at this point in time, though increase general financial outlook due to diversified application routes for the drug.

2,
This diversity in turn should influence the likelihood of finding a funding partner for the trials and development, if not already in place to be verified after positive results.

3,
ATL1103's supression of IGF-1 levels in general should open a whole variety of applications in followup studies.
This explains the dimension of some of the estimates where ANP as a company might be heading.
This whole industry is in its infancy.

4,
It also is a plus to be linked to ISIS which guarantees patent protection util 2025( ANP's drugs are also individually patented ) plus their technology experties and biotech exposure.

5,
Primate studies have reduced IGF-1 levels by 35 % and the recent ISIS presentation emphasised the strong likelihood of primate data being applicable to human data.
As much as that being already possibly priced in the current market run, as mentioned above as a negative, it is also a positive as it increases our chances for a great result considerably.

6,
ISIS' first antisense drug launch of Mipomersen, reducing LDL-C the end primary point for heFH, next year paves the way for a whole industry to unfold which should influence our shareprice considerably.




I therefore conclude that as long as we can see a comparably strong reduction result of IGF-1 levels by around 35% ( similar to the Mipomersen result of reducing LDL-C levels by 37% ) we should see a strong effect of the testing results on the shareprice.



Regarding next week's trading, I would personally expect for Monday that we should see some very active trading early on with a high around 3.5 cents on the heels of today's turnaround.
3.7 should stay in place as resistence and being tackled Tuesday or Wednesday after some initial weakness.

I would not expect results to come early as the estimated window for the announcement was already brought up forward from early next year, so it seems unlikely to surprise again within this window in an industry which usually runs late.