I would love to know how the 1. Downrampers, 2. Shorters and 3....

I would love to know how the 1. Downrampers, 2. Shorters and 3. Non holders of this outstanding stockare going to respond and position themselves when the next big contract is won that has a value more than $62M. Will it be more luck, another one-off or what?And if DRO wins a substantial slice of the Land156 contract what will the spin be when that happens, dumb luck timing, only a once in a lifetime one-off or some other fantasy reasoning.

Don’t worry about shorts as they are small and any outstanding are going to be way out of the money very soon, if not already. This price rally is completely different to last year for so many obvious reason. Friday was a very interesting trading day and the price recovery confirmed this rally is very different to last year.

Please don’t use negative thread headings to post your thoughts and information. If you do, all other posters will know that you are one of the three categories above and are to be ignored. Yes, its hard to get the balance right between the bulls and bears and maybe we should all just let the facts and unfolding events speak for themselves and not have any interaction.

Lastly, the following post is very encouraging and was the most informative yesterday (yes it is sad that it was AI generated) It was posted by j944 in the Ann: June 2025 Investor Presentation thread.

An AI review of theAusTender webpage relating to DroneShield may provide a few clues to theawarding process for Land156. (all publicly available information)

Based on the Departmentof Defence contract CN4156982 and the historical pattern ofDroneShield's awarded tenders, you can draw several strong inferencesabout Project LAND156 and DroneShield’s likely role in it:

️ DroneShield& LAND156 – Signals Locking In

A newly released $4.97MDefence contract (CN4156982) to DroneShield Group Pty Ltd, executedin May 2025 under the JSD-EWIS Branch, confirms what manysuspected: DroneShield is embedded within the LAND156 program, evenif not yet publicly framed as such. The awarding agency – the Joint SystemsDivision (EWIS) – is the exact unit managing LAND156’s Counter small-UncrewedAerial Systems (CsUAS) stream.

Now Add This PuzzlePiece

The officialLAND156 SIP tender (ATM ID: JSD/EOI/53343/1), published on 21Nov 2024 and closed 20 Dec 2024, calls for a SystemsIntegration Partner to support the entire LAND156 rollout. Theselected SIP will:

• Design, manage and assure delivery of CsUAS capabilities.
• Integrate command-and-control (C2) systems across Defence forces.
• Oversee and deliver acquisition strategies across Army, Air Force and Joint domains.

This is not just aboutbuying gear — it’s about becoming part of the backbone of ADF’s drone defenceecosystem.

With DroneShield alreadyreceiving contracts under JSD for related CsUAS systems, it's a logicalinference they are:

1. Already in the LAND156 acquisition stream,
2. A strong candidate (if not already shortlisted) for future LAND156 integration phases,
3. Likely operating under embargoed or commercially sensitive conditions, explaining their absence from forward guidance.

️ DefendingBillion-Dollar Defence Assets

Drones don’t care aboutthe size of your ship, tank or radar array. A $500 UAV can knock out a $100M+defence platform. This is where DroneShield’s C-UAS suite comesin — capable of detecting, tracking, jamming and neutralising drone threatsbefore they become catastrophic.

DroneShield’s technologyis being primed to defend:

• LAND400 platforms, including Boxer CRV (>$5B+)
• Forward Operating Bases, airfields, and naval ports
• Sensitive radar and communication installations
• National infrastructure against irregular or asymmetric threats

A Proven Record withDefence

Since 2019, DroneShieldhas been repeatedly contracted by Defence, including:

• $10.4M – Surveillance Equipment (2023)
• $9.9M – Engineering Services (2023–2025)
• $1.9M – Capability Maturation (2021–2023)
• $823K – Technology Demonstration
• Multiple radar, R&D, and sensor tech deliveries

Many of these contractshave confidentiality clauses citing "intellectualproperty", signalling sensitive or classified integration — exactly whatyou’d expect if LAND156 involvement is ongoing but not yet announced.

LAND156 ValueEstimation

LAND156 is a multi-yearprogram designed to equip the ADF with integrated electronicwarfare and counter-drone systems across Army platforms. Conservativeestimates based on prior Defence programs suggest:

		Component	Estimated Value (AUD)
1		SIP / Systems Integration Phase	$150–250 million
2		Initial Hardware Acquisition	$100–200 million
3		Training, Sustainment, Upgrades	$100–150 million
4		Total Program Size (Est.)	$400–600 million+

Thus, the $4.97Mcontract could simply be an opening slice in amulti-tiered rollout.

Investor Outlook:Undervalued or Just Early?

Despite the stock tradingat $2.30's, DroneShield’s inclusion in the current Defence rhythm(backed by a $2.4B pipeline and $77M expected in 24-month contracts) suggeststhat major catalyst announcements may be ahead, especially asLAND156 and Mission Syracuse awards become public.

If (or when) DroneShield is confirmed as either a major supplier orintegration partner, the re-rating potential is significant,especially with:

• Global adoption (NATO country $60M order),
• US & UK contracts,
• Sovereign advantage for ADF,
• 300+ engineers continuously evolving its tech.

If DroneShield (ASX: DRO)captures even a fraction of the estimated $400–600million LAND156 program, the share price upside could be substantial.

Here’s how it might play out:

		Program Component	Value (AUD)	DroneShield Share*	Revenue to DRO	Impact on FY26–27 Revenue	Potential Share-Price Catalyst
1		SIP / Integration Phase	$150–250 million	50%	$75–125 million	+150–250% vs FY25	Landing prime-contract status
2		Initial Hardware Acquisition	$100–200 million	30%	$30–60 million	+60–120%	Major supply-contract secured
3		Training & Sustainment	$100–150 million	40%	$40–60 million	+80–120%	Recurring-revenue contract wins

* Conservative “capturerates” assume DroneShield is one of multiple suppliers.

1. Base Case (DRO wins 30–40% total):

• Revenue contribution: ~$145–245 million over FY26–27
• EPS uplift: 2–3× current levels
• Price target: $3.00–$3.50 (50–100% upside)

Bull Case (DRO wins SIP and >50% integration work):

• Revenue contribution: ~$275–375 million
• EPS uplift: 4–5× current levels
• Price target: $4.00–$5.00+ (100–150% upside)

Catalyst Timeline:

• Q3 2025: Initial hardware/service delivery (opening $4.97 M slice)
• Late 2025: SIP down-select announcement
• 2026–2028: Phased roll-out, sustainment contracts begin

Investor Takeaway

• Even a single $30 million tranche booked in FY26 would add ~60% to FY25 revenue—enough to re-rate DRO toward $2.70+.
• Securing the SIP role could drive $75–125 million in incremental sales, underpinning a share-price move into the $3.50–$4.00+ range.
• Recurring training and sustainment contracts provide a high-margin, annuity-style revenue base, supporting a premium EV/Revenue multiple (5–7×).

As LAND156 unfolds, eachcontract milestone should act as a share-price catalyst, making DROa high-conviction long-term holding.

Conclusion: Eyes on theSky, Boots in the Door

With LAND156 contracts quietly rolling out and SIPs now being finalised, DroneShieldmay already be walking point for Australia’s drone defence future.

Not just a product vendor— but a strategic pillar in the ADF’s evolving C-UASarchitecture.

EOFY share price corrections are in play until Monday 30th June but the newfinancial year holds some serious upside for investors.

Reference:

This analysis was conducted with the aid of artificial intelligence (AI), usingpublicly available data from the AusTender website, including ContractNotice CN4156982 (published 11 June 2025), the Expression ofInterest JSD/EOI/53343/1 for the LAND156 Countersmall-Uncrewed Aerial Systems Systems Integration Partner (published 21November 2024), and a review of historical Department of Defence contractsawarded to DroneShield Group Pty Ltd.