I will stick my neck out. I am surprised that the price has...

I will stick my neck out. I am surprised that the price has continued its upward trend. The rest of the market is not doing that. I believe that essentially we are in a zone of too few shares being chased by too many.buyers.

I still believe the EPS ( Because Bell Potter did not take into account Tax via deferred tax - in my opinion ) in their calculations is realistically around 3c per share 50% up from last year. However the pressure on the share price suggests that buyers see this sector better than most and want in. 3c at a 20 PE is around 60c.

Looked at a couple of other plays - Regis Healthcare (REG) EPS expected 2015 around 16c and have a 42% compound growth over 4 years prior to listing. Trades at $5.45 so its on a 34 PE. Its been higher - I think its again a stock in short supply. They are in aged care - Beds effectively. Property based.

The other Life Health care ( LHC) around 20 eps trading at $3.40 so 17Pe. They have a few very specialised products and have been around for a long time but only listed recently. The kicker here is that the 50% style growth occurred a few years back for them and they have a much more sedate growth path projected. given that its probable that PGC should have at this stage a higher PE - what should that be - its not realistically 34 , nor would I expect 17 so originally I thought 20 and a fair value of 60c with an upside of 70c. 70 would be around 25PE on my numbers - some say EPS of 4.1c ... I dont get there. To me its more about expectations that would drive value - I wont be selling below 70c so maybe 25 is right.

So my EPS is and has remained ( based upon the company guidance) around 3c to 3.1c but I think value may well be between 60c to 70c as I expect this company to have a reasonable growth path. I am much more concerned in getting the PE right and not selling out too early rather than this years EPS.