World rice crop large, stocks tight By Elton Robinson Farm Press Editorial Staff | Dec 16, 2005
Tight global rice supplies will lead to slightly higher world prices in 2006, but rice trade is expected to decline because of good supplies in major importing countries, according to Nathan Childs, senior rice market analyst, USDA's Economic Research Service.
Childs, speaking at the 2005 USA Rice Outlook Conference in Austin, Texas, noted that despite the second largest rice crop (406.1 million tons in 2005) the world has ever produced, total supplies are projected lower for the fourth consecutive year as projected world rice consumption (414 million tons projected) continues to outpace production.
Larger rice crops are projected for 2005-06 for China, Burma, Nigeria, Thailand, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Australia. Smaller crops are projected for Brazil, South Korea and the EU.
According to Childs, world trade is projected to decline in 2006 due to smaller imports from Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Exports are projected lower in Vietnam, India, China, Pakistan and Egypt. “Large importing countries are taking less rice because they have fairly large supplies due to bigger crops,” Childs noted.
Global ending stocks are projected to drop about 11 percent in 2005-06, the fifth consecutive year of declining global stocks.
