This is a good question.
I posted last year about this: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/what-do-people-know-about-wafs-security-arrangements.5554496/
Since then, violence has decreased somewhat according to the ACLED data. There was also an election with a clear result and no major violence.
There has been more coverage in the international press lately because a UN VIP visited and did some press releases, I think.
I still think the main risk is an attack on staff travelling from the Ouagadougou, especially expats. However, there are likely easier targets to attack further north closer to areas militants have more control. The French peacekeepers, who are actually hard-core killers, have been doing there thing lately also.
If there is another attack on another mine somewhere, obviously that is going to hurt the share price, but it won't stop production.
The majority of the revenue for the Government comes from gold, so they will do everything they can to protect that. They might try to increase taxes, but they probably will only do that for new projects.
Also, I'd say the risk is priced in: WAF is already at a 40 to 50% discount to NAV, where as some of the Aussie producers are actually a premium.
I'm expecting to see the discount fall once WAF pays off its debt. That gives them flexibility to halt production for a while if they absolutely need to, without the creditors threatening to take the mine.
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