Why is it such a stretch to consider that PDN could just...

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934 Posts.

16/06/14

22:06

Post #: 13531455
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Originally posted by thepick ↑

I have been in an out of this stock a few times, broken even at best. Looking at having another nibble at this level. Before doing so, I did some quick and dirty analysis on the three year cash-flow which left me with one question. The question I want answered by "the market" is what is the implied (or expected) strategy for PDN to refinance the two CNs listed as company liabilities?

My analysis done on a napkin during my last Red wine and Ragu is as follows;
At C1 costs in the high twenties, I assume that LHU will be cash neutral at current prices.
I estimate PDNs Corporate costs and debt repayments to be circa $100m per annum. This includes other costs at LHU including capital, PDN HQ costs, Kayelekera C&M costs forecast at $10m per annum, Exploration and evaluation costs for other projects and Debt service (100%) of around $50 million per annum.
At this rate (and with no increase in U prices) the CNNC cash should be gone within 2 years, and in any case should not be looked on to contribute to the first CN repayment due in Nov next year. For those bulls that expect that the price will spike to $100/lb the minute the switch is hit on the first Japanese unit are kidding themselves.
Just read the recent announcements or information released in presentations by those in the know such as Cameco, Areva and brokers that have been referred to on this forum. There is a well documented mountain of surplus Uranium and no perception of scarcity anywhere near the horizon to force buyers to the market. Cigar lake is cranking up and Husab is just round the corner. In any case for those that hold the view that prices will be up to $50 and beyond in the near term, this still does not do much for PDN now that its equity production is down to around 4 mlbs per annum
So that brings me back to the two CNs, the first being due in Nov 2015 with a value of $300 million. The second for another ~ $300m is due 18 months later.
I am interested to hear how this forum believes these obligations will be met. I guess that selling another 1/2 of LHU to CNNC would solve the problem instantly, but not sure if I am up for owning whats left.

I look forward to your views, and appologise if my analysis is too simplistic and I have missed a key piece of data that obviates the whole problem.

The PICK

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Why is it such a stretch to consider that PDN could just refinance the CN's?

Seems so simple to me, but then again I am just simple.

PDN Price at posting: 32.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $12.57		Change 0.150(1.21%)		Mkt cap ! $3.715B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$12.45	$12.76	$12.26	$12.61M	1.006M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	225	$12.57

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$12.58	1852	10

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	3	12.610
11	2056	12.600
10	1901	12.590
13	6198	12.580
7	1624	12.570

Price($)	Vol.	No.
12.620	428	4
12.630	3232	10
12.640	5703	14
12.650	6898	20
12.660	4773	7

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