bush says no peaceful fix, page-21

re: iran crisis: next steps Bush etc do not have the clout they had earlier in his term. He is in the lame duck phase of his presidency, even fellow rebuplicans are looking to who the next man might be.

So his own desires or Cheney's are not as relevant as they once were.

The fact is the US might bomb Iran or someone else but they will not commit ground troops.

They won't because:

(a) It will cost too much. Iraq is already costing way more than the the US public were told it would and the support is dropping like a stone. Also the loss of US soldiers is starting to effect more and more of the population as more and more people know someone who knows someone who lost someoene.

(b) They are basically gutless. They will only invade when they think they have on immensely overwhelming force. They thought they had that in VietNam and by the time of Iraq they had forgotten how they had their backsides whipped by the VC. Now they have had a reminder how hard ground wars are and it is very fresh in their minds.

(c) On top of all that Iran is not Iraq. Iran is bigger, and better armed. The USA is having trouble getting people into the armed forces and they certainly have trouble getting them to stay on. Do you think Iran will have trouble getting people to fight an invader?

No they won't invade but the threat is doing wonders for Gold so I hope they keep rattling that sabre and making threats. It is good for business.