Wuey, I've had another look at my numbers this weekend and $37mill-$38mill is my NPAT range. $40mill would be an amazing result, but highly unlikely, so forget i mentioned it!
BAL guidance is in the $31mill-$34mill range, with analyst consensus at $37mill (Thomson Reuters).
I think $31mill-32mill would be a fail to most, $33mill a Pass, $34mill a Credit, $35-$36 Distinction and $37-$38mill High Distinction!
Favourable FX movement, price rises & favourable channel/product mix will all help Gross Margin. Increased head count and increased marketing spend will negate some of the positive impact on EBIT, so that not every dollar of the price increases will turn up as EBIT.
H1 GM was 41.6% and it was interesting to hear BAL talk about getting closer to industry norms. What is industry norm GM for formula/baby food? Higher than 41.6%, is all i know. Mead Johnson in the US work at around 60-62%, A2M H1 was 57% (but just the formula business is higher, probably closer to 65%).
So in future, with scale and efficiency gains, if FX and ingredient costs remain stable, we should see GM move up closer to 45% IMO. If that takes operating margin (revenue/EBIT) up to around 21-22%, assuming costs are controlled, it’s a powerful multiplier.
As long as revenue keeps growing, BAL will generate very good EBIT/NPAT numbers. I think this is the part that the market does not believe in. Mega bears (you 7% of capital short), are betting that demand will basically stop and revenue will drop. Bulls believe BAL has a competitive edge & China is real and will keep growing for many years into the future. Not to mention other markets. Mead Johnson sell to 50 markets according to their website. What is stopping BAL from selling to 20-30-40-50 markets? Supply is the only answer i can come up with. But i'm a lot more positive about supply after the extra information BAL have put out in the last month or so to educate the market.
Lets see what next week brings!
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