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54.5¢ slater & gordon limited

Business going well, page-27

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Mightyatom

3,147 Posts.

08/09/15

16:30

Post #: 15956447
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Originally posted by Grant62 ↑

Sometimes the simplest analysis also makes for the most compelling thesis.

The macro market sentiment accounts for some of the falling price but nowhere near all of it. SGH has had one of the hardest falls from its 2015 highs of any stock in the ASX200. Relative to macro settings, SGH has fallen by a far greater factor than your suggestion at 1) contends. Granted, it is a contributing factor, but not to the extent otherwise being suggested.

Even 2) struggles as an argument. The daily trading figures for SGH do not suggest the presence of HFT behaviour being either present or prevalent. The volumes being traded, the relative evenness of that trading throughout the day, the low average trading values (~900 earlier today, per trade, but now averaging 864) throughout the day, all tend to suggest the absence of such behaviour. I'm presently looking at S32 with 14.3M traded (up 6.5), STO - 15.2M (up 20), TLS - 19.8M (up 7), OSH - 20.6M (up $1.17), NAB - 5.1M (up 35), BHP - 7.2m (up 44), WBC - 4M (up 52) as showing much more impact. In contrast, SGH is up 5 on 1.578M in currently traded volume, at a VWAP of $2.75.

However, I still question what was actually reported on the 28th. What were the results? And what are the actual figures that we should be taking note of? There were many different figures, combinations and scenarios given. So, if that's the answer for good results, then SGH should be practised by everyone as the very model of disclosure.

Mighty may well be right about the cowboys and their influence, but in suggesting this he also forgot about the westerners. They were the ones who pioneered the terrain, handed across the $ in April's equity raising, and who have since lost $3.61 (at current prices - $2.76) on every extra share subscribed for. That's >$500M in relative wealth that has since transferred from the subscribing investor, to the Company, but which has since not been returned back either in a maintained, or increased share price.

Subscribers don't like losing that sort of money and I suspect that many of them (particularly at the retail, SMSF, smaller institutional level) have since sold and likely have been lost for good (or at least for a very long time).

So, if the cowboys are in the ascendancy, then so too the westerners have all but abandoned their push westward into the plains country. Or, to put it another way, once bitten, twice shy. But I suspect that the westerners dropped away long before the cowboys took over. If anything, the Company has not yet recovered from the mauling it received between 23/6 and 7/7 when 125M shares traded, or between 25/6 and 30/6 when 82M shares traded. Some people just simply packed up and left (not to return).

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A couple of points Grant. Before that well done with the wild west metaphor, liked it.

I'm not sure what your take on HFT trading is but my understanding is that small trading parcels are evidence of that activity. They ping the supply/demand side with small trades to tease out who is buying and selling.

Second, I wouldn't give up hope on the good guys yet. Sooner or later sanity prevails and someone with financial clout will look at this and say 56c per share with a realistic 7% growth pathway (15% in immediate years not out of the question) - that is value and I want some.

I have been buying more at current level and it has just dawned on me it is now a dividend stock paying close to 5% as well as a growth stock. The best combination - Westerners will want some of that when the cowboys fall off their horses.

SGH Price at posting: $2.75 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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