Recent posts have $1 and $2/share here we come - that implies...

Recent posts have $1 and $2/share here we come - that implies $211m - $422m market cap people!

This for a business that generated $10k in sales over the June quarter at no gross profit (yes I know it is very early but still).

I have 5 key issues with this business model.
1) Apart from opaque pricing (price per gram is not fixed, not revealed and adjusted for active cannabinoid content), Aphria delivers product to the port of Canada, and then Althea take responsibility for all other costs - freight, warehousing, sales & marketing etc - great deal for Aphria - not so for Althea. When you are dealing with a high priced product to begin with, your margin at the end of this supply chain to remain competitive is likely to be low, or product uncompetitive.

2) If Althea do a great job of building the brands of Aphria (and it will take a number of years and plenty of $$), there is nothing stopping Aphria setting up there own people here and continuing operations - I have seen this many times in wholesale/brand relationships - quite often the better you do the more likely you will lose the licence! Yes they have a shareholding to consider, but I suspect there initial entry price (pre-IPO) was negligible.

3) All these import licences are renewed every year, so there are so many opportunities for non-renewal - who knows what a labour government will do! Aphria's initial supply agreement is only 3-years before renewal, and their licencing deal can be terminated if they go below 5% shareholding.

4) IF personal cannabis use takes off in Canada post October 2018, supply may be redirected there, limiting Althea's sales. That said a glut is forecast in a few years time so may be short-term.

5) Should Althea be granted a cultivating licence they will in effect become a competitor to their supplier - never ends well - but if they get it right at least they may make a decent margin.

I am a sceptic on the industry at the best of times given lack of clinical data and the price point of the oils (~$100 per 10mls), but overlay the risks of this business and a $140m valuation already and you can leave me out!