Firstly SWAP - a great insight yet again - it is a pleasure to...

Firstly SWAP - a great insight yet again - it is a pleasure to see some sensible analysis rather than mindless rhetoric.

On to other question posed - why is SP 44c.

For those of us who have been watching the trading action we ALL know the share has been manipulated. The big question is why and by whom.

Initially I thought it might be Pelorus trying to keep the SP down. Once they conceded defeat (by aiming to cancel the meeting)...the action STILL happened.

Then I thought - bidders - by keeping price down bid prices of 90c-$1.08 would appear to be good against any VWAP metric once bids were declared. But bids have not been declared....and the ACTION still happened.

It was only last week that I think we have our answer - and it was almost by default. When AFG went through its major upswing last week - the action stopped for about 20 minutes....unfortunately for me I had no surplus cash to play AFG. But whilst action was focused heavily on AFG - the CNP SP rose without relative hinderance and then close to close, the cappers were back.

This makes me conclude the manipulation (and why the SP is down at 44- 45c mark) is either a single (and very sophisticated) hedge fund/sizeable day trader (or consortium) - as it is all about returns on funds and if AFG was going gangbusters - it provided enhanced short-term returns vs longer term positioning with CNP. It is a blatant accumulation strategy ahead of the ann coming out.

Now people do not accumulate for the hell of it - they believe/know there is serious capital appreciation that can be seen - and in that sense they are in the same shoes as us - except they have substantial $$ and can call the shots.

A banker I had a beer with last week suggested the SP had already taken into account the extension was a foregone conclusion - and under normal circumstances I would have suggested he would be right - however, look at AFG - no ann but SP up markedly - yes that has potentially got close to its market value - because it hasn't been as manipluated as CNP.

If, and I stress If we do get great news in the ann - as per SWAP and Spectator article - we will see the true value reflected and the accumulators (and ourselves) will be happy....but until the ann the 44c figure will abound...

Just my thoughts.

PT