Firstly, thank you for the great analysis swap & pommytimbo.
swap: You know swap I think something along these same lines were mentioned last week; I'm not sure where I read it but it may have been in a previous Gottliebsen article. Hopefully he has a highly placed source and is plugged into the right connections!
I do agree with you that it is an excellent and now very obvious path to pursue whereby every merchant gets their pound of flesh without the pint of blood, so in essence its a win/win for all.
It is very important imo in any sale or part sale, that Centro can be assured of retaining Management Rights.
pommytimbo: I have been closely watching the sp movements over the last few weeks & I would agree that it appears to be manipulated. I would dismiss Pelorus, because I do not think they have the financial horsepower. It would have to be a pretty big group imo seeing most Hedge Funds only place 1% of their equity per investment (and some would leverage that 1% by borrowing).
Having said that Hedge Funds from my very basic & limited knowledge are all about maximising a return (so the Centro scenario fits well) however minimise and reduce risk as much as possible; so unless a Fund(s) was particularly well connected or impeccably connected (or maybe had Lazard Carnegie as Advisors) that Centro may be outside of their criteria. Now if this was a Bank already holding substantial debt I could see it working!
I do not agree with your Banker friend pommytimbo that the extension is already factored into the sp, with evidence like AFG. When the announcement does come I don't think it is going to be 'straightforward & UP she goes' - I think it is going to be more a case of 'another brick in the wall' of steadily building (or should I say re-building???) the Company back to its former glory.
Cheers, Pie :-)
CNP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
