busting the niche market myth for vapendavir

For all those that think asthma and other high risk patients will result in a niche opportunity, I would advise you to think again.

Asthma alone sees 300 million sufferers globally with around 250000 deaths per annum. Around 600m plus common colds in this population per annum.

Assuming a $100 price point, and conservative 10% penetration, we can see the market at a whopping $6bn per annum. At 30% royalty, at $2bn per annum. This is not a niche market opportunity.

Same goes for copd, cf, immuno compromised and so on.

Of course the mass market is a magnitude higher, but we just don't need the risk of trying to get it approved for that market just yet. Easy to piss off the regulator.

Given the overwhelming success of the trial, biota WILL attract license deals. The question is how big, and when. If phase III is under $100m then there is the very real possibility biota can push back even decent deals to self fund. An important part of the negotiations... If pharma know you can or self fund they will dial back. So I honestly believe we can get a good upfront and royalty package. I have faith in the board when it comes to license deals.

We will see announcements over the next few months, I hope one is a Nasdaq list.