busting the niche market myth for vapendavir, page-2

The population of the USA ~ 313m(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population)

The physician visits due to common cold ~(75+100)/2 = 87.5m per annual
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold)


Estimated number of severe Asthma suffers in the US ~ 24m
About 60% of those are adults
(http://www.health-care-information.org/diseases/asthma/statistics.html)


Suppose about 80% of those asthma suffers who visit physicians for the reason of Common cold will be given Vapendavir for treatment.

Then, with the above information, we can do some forecasting about the revenue of Vapendavir in the market of Asthma paitents:

The average number of Physician visits per person for common cold in the US is 87.5/313 = 0.28 = 28%

Then, the number of prescriptions for Vapendavir for those asthma patients is about 24m X 60% X 28% X 80% = 3.22m


If the average sale price per prescription is $100, then the total sales is about 3.22m X $100 = 322m

if ... $150, then ... 3.22m X $150 = $483m

if ... $200, then ... 3.22m X $200 = $644m


I think the sales price would be high, that could be why PC made that comment on the cost-benefit point for otherwise healthy common cold patients


This calculation is for Asthma patients only. The drug is intended to target more different patient groups with the same need.


This is just my rough calucations based on some information found on the Internet. they may be unreliable.