It's all good, @Schoey. Reflecting on that post, I did not say what I wanted to say or convey correctly. I wanted to highlight how hard it is determining an exact value and how they are estimations at best.
Respectfully, I don't think a post count is an accurate measure of an individuals ability to compare, evaluate, and determine clinical and commercial risk to potential value. There are multiple examples of oncology buyouts in the billions, and M&A transactions for first-in-class cancer drugs, in particular, happen in the multi-billions (1-3). This is largely due to the ability to quickly capture a portion of the market and generating more revenue than a best-in-class drug that may follow (4). Irrespective of post count, I think most readers and posters are able to appreciate that we have a previously approved drug with bucket loads of historic and current safety and efficacy data with the potential to be a first-in-class therapy (FTO inhibitor).
While I am conscious of not wanting to convey a utopian view, I cannot ignore the substantial amount of data available to me because the thought of a multi-billion dollar buyout is unpalatable to me. If the data was not here for RAC, I would not be active in this space. The data I have available to me suggests a multi-billion dollar buyout, so it makes sense that other posters feel the same way. What I feel is worth consideration is the few buyouts I have listed as examples are for strictly cancer drugs and may not accurately reflect the true value of a drug that may be used in other disease indications.
1 https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/lilly-loxo-292-ret-wclc-lung-cancer-results/562419/
2 https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/3/gilead-to-acquire-forty-seven-for-49-billion
3 https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/10/gilead-sciences-completes-acquisition-of-immunomedics-inc
4 https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd4035
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It's all good, @Schoey. Reflecting on that post, I did not say...
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1 | 4000 | 1.600 |
2 | 2300 | 1.580 |
1 | 636 | 1.570 |
1 | 6000 | 1.560 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.690 | 2376 | 1 |
1.735 | 3313 | 1 |
1.750 | 2000 | 1 |
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1.800 | 2000 | 1 |
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