Almost invariably when a bearish post re banks appears,someone...

Almost invariably when a bearish post re banks appears,someone writes in and posulates: I buy banks for the large divs." At around 6.6%=9.3% after fr credits... this seems to be a logical position. But without credit growth bank earnings cannot grow. This causes divs to slide which causes SP to fall further than drop in divs. When GDP growth stalls it invariably causes job losses and a leap in bad debts. This causes a very sharp drop in earnings which produces a sharp large drop in divs. Once again the drop is divs is far smaller than drop in SP. Under current circumstances i can't see how banks can raise earnings. I can't see how they can prevent a rise in c.card and mortgage defaults. Super funds are usually the last to realise this and when they reduce their monster holdings there will be nobody to buy the millions of shares on offer. IMO choose a stk with divs. It is almost always less risky than a share without divs. But take a smaller div of say 4%+frcredits.... along with a sector that is experiencing growth and increasing earnings. Plenty around. HC is full of good tips.