Caylus, Great post. I’m sure it’s hard to stomach the obvious,...

Caylus, Great post.

I’m sure it’s hard to stomach the obvious, but it has to be caulked up to a valuable learning lesion if you are willing to allow it. That aside, I agree with most of yr analysis of the economic situation; but there is always a disconnect with the market and economy. Perhaps, you need to reexamine your risk management if you allowed a short to run from 3600-4000ish…? The sad thing is you have now been forced to cover, when it would seem logical to go short with stop loss protection. Damn, we have all been there; but bull market or not, its never EASY to make a dime.

This strong countertrend rally has been extremely powerful , so those fund managers that missed the easy money from March would be under a lot of pressure. They may have given up waiting on the sidelines and pushed $ in, thus the rally to 4000.

From here, BHP up almost 100% from $20. CBA up around %55 from the low. WOW!!! So now the pack and managers are all bullish. Hmmmmmmmm. Reality check required IMO.

Personally I wouldn’t be rushing into LONG after such stellar gains. That’s is the risk to the LONG side today is much higher than the bargains in March. Presently everyone is starry eyed and bullish, so perhaps we can continue up, but I’ve taken my gains off the table (excluding commodities) . I don’t believe the goldilocks story that the pollies are spinning. Im NET SHORT with the stops, so lets see.

Cheers
“There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.” Sherlock Holmes….