buy buy buy, page-38

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/csg-industry-in-crisis-as-gas-plays-face-20bn-blowout/story-e6frg9df-1226419419888

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/bubbling-river-blamed-on-gas-20120530-1zib9.html

"Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge said he expected cost overruns to erode most of the net present value of the projects..."The issue for the (CSG) industry is that when you get out of the sweet spots, the wells aren't as productive and that means you have to drill more wells or use more technology to drill more horizontal ones or you fracture stimulate and that means higher costs to get the gas out," he said."

Some major headaches in CSG coming. Makes producing Coldry at AGL look like a breeze to me.

OPEX/Margins/Profits

Coldry via ARUP cred figures have stated indicative FOB figures:

Operational expense 13
Feedstock (approx) 18
Freight to port 20
Total FOB Australia 51

The long established resource in main game LV is there just waiting to experience some serious Coldrying...~6 times the energy of the NW Shelf - no initial drilling/mining license time wasting (unless an allocation comes - bit happening in EL 5119), no massive dilution to buy mining equipment, no enviro/protest nightmares...and investors have a very good idea of MARGINS already...ALL of which means significant CERTAINTY.

Investors want CERTAINTY of PROFITS/MARGINS - market caps will reflect these (and potential for these).

CERTAINTY (via AGL and DFT) / MARGINS (via Coldry process and business model)...just add a quality/nimble CSI like Monash/IMFA with significant connections/cash ...sounds like a winning formula to me...with Matmor madness to follow.

June 15 2012

"ECT is extremely pleased with the work done to date (ARUP/DFT). The outcomes continue to support Coldry’s commerciality and instill confidence in the timeframes set to deploy the first Commercial Demonstration plant at Loy Yang."

Do folks remember the "timeframes set"?...from memory ECT stated ~mid 2014 to start spitting out pellets. If that occurs (it was only 3 weeks ago ECT said its on track) then 1st mover advantage (in main game LV/AGL) is a given by a long shot imo.

Chairmans Address Nov 2011 - Mike Davies:

"The energy contained in the Victorian coalfields is some six times the energy contained in the North West Shelf gas reserves. Yes I said six times. You will have read recently that the expected investment in developing just two major projects in the North West Shelf gas fields exceeds $40 billion.

Given the relative size of the energy resource in Victoria, and the capability of the Coldry process to cost effectively produce relatively clean energy from lignite; it is not unreasonable to expect multi-billion-dollar investments in developing this Victorian energy resource."

http://www.ectltd.com.au/wp-content/uploads/111130-ASX-Chairman-Address.pdf

http://www.ectltd.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Shareholder-Update-June-20122.pdf

tick tock...