Lets just say that Phylogica makes a key announcement in January...

Lets just say that Phylogica makes a key announcement in January 2013. In fact the company signs the biggest deal to date. Given that each of the last three deals were in turn the biggest deal to date, the new deal exceeds $1bn and comprises multiples candidates. How will the market react?

This is the dilemma for frustrated shareholders and sceptical investors. Frustrated shareholders will want to sell into any depth while sceptical investors will remain waiting-to-be-convinced and sit on the sidelines. A new deal, however, will further validate the company claims that it owns a world class biologics library which eventually Big Pharma will fight over for control.

Its a missed opportunity to ignore the fundamental case for investment simply because guidance has been astray. Nick Woolf stands closer to being correct to the next big deal than at any time in 2012.