pelsaert - some numbers
pelsaert, a few 'rough' numbers on 'potential'...
Lets take first some assumptions -
JPR get all their ducks lined up (interesting terminology) as per the 'Current Milestones/Plan' on page 4 in their broker presentation, meet the timeframes as per page 5 and the 'Development Milestones' as on page 6. Then assume they have similar output and cost and tax benefits etc... and end up making roughly the same after tax profit (JPR looks to be setting up for larger production?) in their first year.
JPR have 157 million shares fully diluted - lets also assume that JPR do another capital raising in the future for say 53 million more giving total shares of 210 million.
Now lets take Mission first at today (MBT)...
MBT Scenario 1 - "Now"
Share Price = $1.60 Number of shares fully diluted = 100 million Market Cap = $160 million Profit after tax estimate for 2007 = $25.6 million Earnings per share estimate for 2007 = 25.6 cps Current pe ratio based on 2007 profit = 6.25 Industry average pe ratio = 17.15
** If MBT traded near its industry average pe - lets take 16 for this exercise then the mission details potentially in the near future might look like the following...
MBT Scenario 2 - "If assigned a pe of 16 by the market"
Share Price = $4.10 (don't laugh - possible imo on a 2007 forecast pe of 16 - ie 16 divided by 6.25 times by $1.60) Number of shares fully diluted = 100 million Market Cap = $410 million Profit after tax estimate for 2007 = $25.6 million Earnings per share estimate for 2007 = 25.6 cps Current pe ratio based on 2007 profit = 16 Industry average pe ratio = 17.15
Now again considering the earlier assumptions then what price might JPR be at in each scenario for MBT if JPR produced the same financial results and assigned the same pe ratio's as MBT...
JPR Scenario 1 - "As per MBT Now"
Share Price = $0.175
Number of shares fully diluted = 210 million Market Cap = $37 million Profit after tax estimate for 2007 = $25.6 million Earnings per share estimate for 2007 = 12.2 cps Current pe ratio based on 2007 profit = 1.43 Industry average pe ratio = 17.15
** Price JPR would be trading at now if assigned the CURRENT MBT pe of 6.25 = $0.77 (ie 6.25 divided by 1.43 times by 17.5 cents) **
If JPR traded near its industry average pe - lets take 16 for this exercise then the details potentially in the future might look like the following...
JPR Scenario 2 - "If assigned a pe of 16 by the market"
** Share Price = $1.95 (ie 16 divided by 1.43 times by $0.175) **
Number of shares fully diluted = 210 million Market Cap = $410 million Profit after tax estimate for 2007 = $25.6 million Earnings per share estimate for 2007 = 12.2 cps
Might explain the 'risk' taken by that buyer in the oppies at 2 cents ;)
JPR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
