Buy Cash at Discount, page-13

Bill Evans, the economist at Westpac, the large Australian Bank, has the following view of iron ore prices:

"We are also forecasting that the iron ore price has bottomed out. We anticipate a lift of around 15% in the price by year’s end. That will be driven by a reduction in the growth in iron ore supply as we anticipate that local Chinese producers, who are already producing iron ore at costs of 10–20% above the current market price, will not re-open a number of facilities after the Golden Week holiday. (Recall this significant dynamic in 2012 when the iron ore price last fell to around $US80/t) In addition, the Chinese authorities have already announced a range of policy measures to boost the housing market in China (housing construction is the single largest user of steel) thus boosting demand. These forces are expected to gather pace through 2015, supporting a further lift of around 15% in the iron ore price. While the AUD has not fully adjusted to this year’s 40% fall, markets generally respond to surprises and are forward looking. A surprise lift is likely to see the AUD outperform the broader USD trend going through to year’s end, which we proxy by flat EUR/USD."

;-)