buy depth disappearing, page-11

boys,

my quick envelope math, says after kik convert their 4c piggy options, and leave a residual 5c options,

the structure of kik will be 1433m fps, and 296m 5c ops.

that is more shares than ndos 1350m fps.

so, With NDO-KIK gindara being a 3-2 weighting, lets call it par for the yakal and other small fish,

then you have NDO also have galoc producing, and a potential other partnering in sc58, that shows promise.

What is KIK worth relative to NDO?

Begin with 2/3, then reduce for Galoc and sc58,sc63.

i would be throwing a dart, but maybe half that, so 1/3, might be about the right area.

Hence, with a (1433+256 fd)/1350 = 1.25 capitol bias,

would expect fair value of KIK to NDO shares being NDO /(1.25 x 3)

ie NDO / 3.75

atm 10c/ 3.75 = 2.66

Mind you, some of the market, wont look at the capitol structure that will unfold in the 8m ahead of us, when the 4c conversion, and just look at current mc based on FPS, which is an illusion.

The fact is, KIK are in effect,doing a 1-1 doubling of script to FD status.

Better in bed with NDO, the higher MC will always allow for any capitol raises to have less dillutive effect.
(raise 20m from 100m mc = 1-5, raise 20m from 20m mc = 1-1)

All that said, when the gindara drilling starts, everything else, galoc etc, will be put aside, and it will be a straight 3-2 comparison for those who dont follow to any depth, and probably on an undilluted basis. (incorrectly so, but thats the market)