Absolutely agree with your rationale and calcs, but as you point out they are absolutely base case. Just to remind everyone, no ...
> Impending upgrade from RISC on a per-well basis. Their first stab was a 42% increase on SNE1.
> No impending upgrade from the JV post-SNE3. We've already heard "bumper", so it will be a very significant uplift.
> No Bellatrix - minimum 49% COS.
> No SNE4 (under Bellatrix).
> No FAN - P90 of 2.5 billion barrels, and who would now bet against it. FAR might not be around to find out, but you can bet FAN will be accorded value by a predator.
> No Pakistani openers - and if Bellatrix strikes pay dirt ...
> No enhanced seismic.
> No Djiffere - 75% ownership, shallow water so great economics.
> No Guinea-Bisseau - remember that?
> No Kenya ... I wouldn't pay you much for that.
> No Australia - ok, so I wouldn't pay much for that either.
> Lastly - and I can not over-emphasise this point - the JV and FAR will be sitting on an absolute mountain of technical data that will be like a goldmine for the big boys. All very well for us mugs to pontificate about the shreds of evidence that have been released: The real story is locked away within a tight hole - it is probably the key to the 'final' price we receive.
On your numbers we're sitting at a market cap about $100 million above our current MC. Our actual value, even with oil at 30 bucks, will be much, much, much higher. The market might refuse to see it - and probably fair enough at present - but you can bet your bottom dollar the big oilers know it.
Chairman Nic told last year's AGM he and Cath both had a fair bit of mongrel in them. They'll need it, because sooner rather than later Big Oil is going to come knocking and try to buy our stuff for a knockdown price. Yes, we'll have to leave plenty on the table - that's business and all the more so in depressed times - but the list above suggests we'll have full enough bellies by the time we leave the table.
Despite declaring to Mrs OOO some months back that I was all done, I have surreptitiously sneaked a couple of hundred more thousand shares. In my mind - and I invite criticism of this statement, because it's a biggie - from what is already known, we can not help but make money. It's only a question of how much.
OOO
FAR Price at posting:
6.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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