***************************************** Sunday, 01/26 Q. Which is better? Buy Gold or Euro?
A: What is good for gold is the poor economics behind the appreciating currencies. The euro really does not economically qualify for the now 1.08 or the future 1.20 - 1.23 where it is going. It feels better to own gold than the euro or any of its constituent currencies in this situation. It is only that the dollar is so very long-term sick as the result of every measure suggested on either side of the aisle, Democrat or Republican, for economic resuscitation or re-election economics for June of 2004. The strong currencies are only mirror inverse reflections of the dollar, therefore they appear as strong. Yes, the dollar is oversold & the euro overbought, but they both may well remain just that way. The rub is that Bush invades Iraq almost immediately or never. Never will finish. Bush here showing it all to been a bluff that accomplished nothing whatsoever except making the USA appear like a pariah nation without teeth. It is not a bluff because this invasion and reconstruction of Iraq is a key part of the economic plan for the resuscitation of the US economy in June of 2004. No war and no chance that Bush will be re-elected in November of 2004, because the economic plan ala the Roosevelt model requires that last ingredient, war demand financed by expanding M3. With human shields now volunteering to go to Iraq to make it more difficult for an invasion, we go now or we do not go. So how about gold roars through $400 soon, which when viewed in retrospect will look almost like a straight line from the resolution of the Golden Teacup. The dollar continues to slide and the euro continues to rise. There will be a reaction as all markets react, but it could be that everything goes into violent overbought and violent oversold before the reaction occurs. In the final analysis, gold right now has a better percentage possibility before reaction than the Euro, IMO.
