buy in gloom sell in boom, page-12

Hi " Shane",,

We're certainly getting the full spectrum of opinions on the situation mate, aren't we ??

I can understand the disappointment of shareholders with the current SP level, that's for sure, but that in itself, makes it a time for objectivity,,above all,, in decision making relative to holding or selling..!!

AZZ is quite a difficult share to follow, because of the high level of drilling activity over the last 6 months..
AZZ releases the information in their announcements, ongoing,, but the task of collating and cross checking is ultimately down to us, if we want to be up to speed on where we stand..!!

That was a good post of yours mate,, but i will respectfully make a correction on the C-1 accessment..!!
There was a small production from middle Wilcox during the flow testing, but that level interval is now not commercial, due to the flow being unsustained, as stated in the most recent announcement on 25 th July..!!

In relation to that announcement on 25 th July,, it's clear that many holders and casual observers, have drawn the inference that the Garcitas Ranch C-1 and C-2 are not going to produce, and have already been proved non-commercial..!!

I point out to all holders, that is NOT what the announcement means..!!!!
To understand it totally, i urge holders to compare two announcements,, the latest on 25 th July, and the first announcement that declared C-1 as a new gas discovery ,,,dated 17 th January..
In doing so,, it will be seen that the interval at 9700 ft, to 10,300 ft was the interval that caused the company to declare this as a discovery,,,
They had to increase the mud weight to 16.3 pounds per gallon,They ran logs, RFT's,, side wall core tests,, and formation pressures were in the range of 8000, to 8500 psi..
At this point in time,,, the drill bit had NOT even reached the level that has just been declared non-commercial.!

AND as it stands currently,,, the level at Upper wilcox, which is what caused the company to declare the well a discovery in the first place,,, has NOT yet been tested..!!

SO,, what's wrong with the share..? Well obviously,, the SP is NOT where it should be..!!

SO what's wrong, or different about the company,,,,NOT very much really, from when the SP was in the 90's..
There is still a huge amount of unfinished testing to do on Scott-2,, NT,, C-1 and C-2,,, Way too early to jump into the bath with the razor..!!

Z-1 was a drill that never really made me very happy.!!
The Yanks are not fools,, and they have been turning all the shallow ground in Texas into "swiss Cheese " for the last 80 years..!!
All the shallow stuff is long gone IMO,, and this drill ,,even on a maxium success would have only provided $5 mil max in turnover..!!
It just gave us another P & A on the score board that we did'nt need..!!

The up and coming drilling program is extensive, and they will be pulling all stops for " Rowena Deep " before the years end, i know that for sure,,!!
The flow testing on Harrison -1 was extensive and dependable IMO, there IS production from that well now..!
I think that the remedial work ,,that was mentioned ,, is on Scott-2, so as to maximise production potential.!!

The last time that the SP was at this level,, there was NO proven flows of any sort on any of this new stuff, and the future drilling campaign was not as extensive either..!
If we could turn the clock back in time and ask ourselves the question,,"" With this current stuff on the table, will i be happy to pay 57c for the share ?? ""

If the answer is NO...........Then people should sell
If the answer is Yes........Then why would you sell ??

Brokers stay up to speed with most of this stuff, and are aware that not much has changed, of any great significance, and it's why thay have'nt altered their target much at all..!!

As " Shareboy " says, it's regretable that the ASX flollows Wall St ,, But that's the modern world of finance these days, and as a result, we'll probably see another rotten day on Monday..!!

AZZ is a speculative share, and as such, i expected a volitile ride, but have'nt sold any of my holding, and certainly won't at these levels,, they are in a much better position than when i made my purchase..!!

It's probably easy for me to say that, as even at fridays close, i'm still in credit, and it's only 20% of my working capital. Others may be financially stressed by this decline in SP, and i'm sorry for them..!!

Cheers Shane..!!

PS:- "Simon",,, nice to hear from you again mate,,!! Thought you must have got lost in Cassablanka ,,or somewhere like that..!!!!