No one is able to predict the market. The market is the market with so many parties and different motives, different circumstances.
That's why it always make me wonder how the brokers put a target price of such and such for a company. Sometimes, because of their influence on the market sentiment, their recommendation almost become a self-fulfilling prophercy.
This is an area where regulators should assess and overhaul as we are trying to establish a new financial market system.
The brokers and so called equity researchers probably need to be more closely monitored than the credit rating agencies.
I am only assessing from a credit prospective, whether it is a going concern with sound cash flow position. It certainly ticks in the case of VPG. It is no where near being in VA. I give management a tick in their efforts of engaging the banks early before any covenant breach (the NAV breach mentioned is not a major benchmark, especially given the large goodwill writeoffs).
I am no equity analyst, however, I saw revenue of different business units remained largely unscathed, despite the massive writedowns. It is reasonable to expect them to generate relatively stable earnings and cash flow when the market turns to the better.
I believe given its independent position, it may be able to reinstate dividend earlier than CER.
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