UNS 0.00% 0.5¢ unilife corporation

To get a takeover up, shareholders need to believe reality is...

  1. 225 Posts.
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    To get a takeover up, shareholders need to believe reality is different than they currently believe. If the directors come out strongly for it, it will go a long way to changing shareholders reality. In terms of what investors bought in at, that is theoretically irrelevant, as I am sure you know. In the real world, it does create a few issues, but walking away at a 50% loss is better than walking away at a 75% one. Investors eventually, sometimes very slowly, come to their senses.

    For the record, I don't think Amgen wants to take a strategic stake in UNS and they definitely don't want to buy it.

    Why would they? They are the largest biotech in the world and need to make much larger acquisitions in their own areas to stay ahead of the curve. Why branch into something they have no experience in and is unlikely to alter their bottom line (at least, in the next 20 years)

    What Amgen wants is to ensure supply of the devices previously agreed between the two companies. Because the approval/use of a drug can be predicated on the use of a specific delivery device, there are probably drugs they won't be able to sell without UNS' products.

    The problem for Amgen is that there is a reasonable chance, as with all small caps, that UNS will end up bankrupt, and Amgen out of luck and future profits. Yes, they could pick the assets up later, but this would cause a reasonable degree of supply disruption, you would think.

    The solution for Amgen is a strategic stake in UNS. It is easy for them, they just have to monitor the company and crack a few heads when UNS steps out of line. They will probably also want a few board seats, the dismissal of Shortall and the company to stop doing any and all work they legally can which is not related to Amgen products (Amgen doesn't want to keep pumping money into a loss making company).

    Obviously, UNS doesn't want this because it would kill the vast majority of growth opportunities for the company and the share price, as well (who wants a company that isn't going to grow?), but they need the cash.

    So UNS says, just buy us, get us all out with at least the shirts on our backs and then do what you want. This is where they are at currently, I imagine. They may also be trying to involve other companies who have done a deals with UNS, because those other companies probably won't want to lose the product UNS has promised to them, either.

    As far as I can see, the only thing working in UNS' favor is that Amgen doesn't want them to go under.

    Before you all start going, oh poppycock, I am just speculating on what might be going based on what is known, what reasonable conclusions one can draw.
 
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