buy rating reaffirmed 31/7, page-12

“but given they have missed guidance at every point for last 18 months i'd again prefer to go the conservative route.”

Wise but I am optimistic.

I have seen 4 major reasons for missing guidance last year.
They have taken steps to reduce the effects of any repeat extreme rain events.
They have taken steps to greatly reduce the risk of any other fires in the mine.
The commissioning delays caused by a contractor going bust is clearly a one off.
The latest reason for missing guidance can not be avoided (veins in one area thinner than expected and interrupted by faulting). This is a vast underground mine and there will be better and worse quarters. This can’t be helped but even this should have less impact going forward with the expansion of operations resulting in any one area having less effect on overall production.

These events have given us a very cheap entry level and I am optimistic they will either not be repeated or will have far less impact on guidance going forward.
There may be other problems as with any operation but there is a good chance the worst is behind this company and we are about to see a strong recovery in production (to new highs with the expansion) and re-rating period for the sp. You would also hope that with previous missed guidance they are already being more cautious with future guidance. E.g. waiting for commissioning and accessing new ore zones before giving 2014 full year guidance.


If stronger than expected employment and GDP numbers both coming out on the same day couldn't break gold’s run last night and with the FOMC out of the way, there seems to be less risk of $1300 support for gold breaking, opening up a try at 1350.
What we have right now is gold trending up and showing signs of continuing strength, and AUD clearly breaking recent support and trending down.
Double whammy effect that might see POG in AUD start to accelerate higher.
Currently $1480 with $1500 just a step away hopefully on its way to $1600 and beyond.