Buy, sell or hold?, page-137

I seldom post but have been hooked by the debate by the various pundits the chartists the traders the analysts etc etc but I have to say that I feel the Jack73 is closer to the money than my holdings would like .. but for a substantively different reason. The Australian economy is holding up so I don't expect to see net profit by any of the big four to drop although the capital raisings may lower some ratios but these are on the margin.

People seem to forget that the Chinese economy is still GROWING by 5-7% from a base that is twice what it was pre GFC so I dont see Asian sourced profit being smashed other than by banks providing margin loans to Chinese mums and dads .. seriously though Chinese stocks have only reversed six months of gains so the impact should be muted so and the US is still gaining ... My concern is that the Aussie market is a SELL within the international market and the AUD falling through 70c will only enhance that concern.

I cant see international funds holding AUD capital in an environment where the RBA is still talking down the dollar. So there's no reason to hold especially in a market "correction" and dividend yield is only a biannual event .. that's a lifetime for a hedge fund or a trader .. so with the AUD down and DJI both down my punt is to see ANZ at mid to hi 25's on Monday but it will be interesting to see what happens if and when the margin calls start to go out .. so that will be a trading issue unrelated but impacting on the SPP. Of course if the AUD continues to fall heavily then an interest rate correction may be warranted to avoid inflationary pressures already in the system .. and that's scary too. Fear and greed ..

As an existing shareholder and recent buyer part of me wants to be wrong .. but .. such is life.