buy side building, page-59

Interesting question Vburg.

The purpose as I see it is to
1) Provide insurance in case the Phase III gives a result which, for any reason, requires a second trial result before registration can be considered (enough money for an additional trial without recourse to a capital raising)
2) Brings on a partner that can rapidly take HA-I to market (this was emphasised at AGM).

The more that is paid for #1, the bigger the future profits they are buying. So my preference is to sell of as little as possible (smaller upfront with larger trailing commission) with a bias towards partnering with companies that can take the product to market fastest.

Given that package, I guesstimate a revised price of about $1 (all you are de-risking is ambiguous trial result, but you are bringing income flow closer if there is a good result).

As to likelihood of a deal. I would guess at 50-75% likelihood that they will do a deal by the end of February 2014. Would have to be before the trial is closed though. The longer it goes, the higher the likelihood of trial success, and the less we should pay for insurance.