BFi understand your calcs but i disagree that they are...

BF

i understand your calcs but i disagree that they are appropriate as it is wrong to annualise this sort of play, the only thing that is important is the absolute return.

Coastal have been buying all the way up to the high 9's and imho they are looking for a lot more than 10.

They have already said they do not believe the sky is going to fall in should the NO vote get up.

The question in my mind is how much of a risk are they prepared to take to vote no (assuming there isn't a sweetner prior to the vote) and hold for a longer term.

Assuming they are prepard to hold and assist AEJ in refinancing the debt (which still has 18odd months) or support for a rights issue to reduce debt and then sell the assets as the debt holders are going to do, they could be looking at anything up to 30 cents inside of 12 months. I'd be prepared to wager that return is better than a .01 - .02 cent return in a month.

As for me i'm a NO!