A timely reminder for those of you haven't noticed - obj has been for a very long time now, a text book case of classic stock behavior, based almost entirely on herd mentality, and many reading this will find themselves firmly within that programming.
To explain and demonstrate using a literally century old principle of the market:
1 - "When the market is anticipating the worst, it almost always sells off."
2 - "This means you see capitol placed in reserve for later re-entry, and drives market value down to badly undervalued levels."
3- "Shares then become oversold, any positive news is ignored and bad news sees an overreaction among shareholders. "
4 - "This creates massive market opportunity in the low-priced, speculative shares."
5 - "When the market wont tolerate risk, low priced penny stocks present the best opportunities for wealth."
So does OBJ adhere to this century old principle, just in the same way as thousands and thousands of others stocks have in the last 100 years? well lets see:
Point 1 - Sounds familiar- The market is selling off - Look at the price drive from 10 to 2.7
Point 2 - Sounds familiar again, plenty of money is on the sidelines -Look at all the posts of "I'll looking for an entry point later when ... ", "Ill come back when.....", "Waiting for it to reach xx.....". The market is watching and waiting, the cash is there. OBJ has been conclusively shown to be undervalued for a long time now.
Point 3 - Sounds familiar once again - Oversold- Lots of positive announcements have had no impact to SP, but instead we saw a sell of from 10 to 2.7 based on pure speculation. Look all the negative threads on here proclaiming your doom and gloom, without any direct evidence to substantiate it for it.
Point 4 - Opportunity Creation? - It does for those who see opportunities, it doesn't for those who move on.
Point 5 - Market risk tolerance at present? - What is OBJ's price again?
So now we have shown OBJ to be following exactly the same herd-driven stock pattern as all other stocks have done in history, predicted a century ago.
AND - This is reinforced by a 50+ year old quote by one of the most notable investors in history -Sir John Templeton:
"Bull markets are born on pessimism,
grow on skepticism,
mature on optimism,
and die on euphoria.
The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy,
and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."
So, this leaves a obvious question for those who are still trying to understand the above:
What has changed in OBJ at a business level fundamentally to justify the price drop from 10 to 2.7?
Answer: Nothing
This is evidenced by the facts:
- There has been no negative announcements, in fact its been plethora of postive ones,
- The company is financially very healthy, has massive an numerous deals with multiple clients, growing in revenue, proven products on the shelf now and in development.
- There is nothing at a business case level to cause the sell off.
- In fact, in the SAME circumstances and evidence above, OBJ has knocked on the door of 10c Numerous times. A massive swing when there is nothing fundamental different at the business level to drive it from then to now.
So then why the sell off?
- The only logical and valid reason is fear in the herd mentality of fear.
-Pack leaders are panicking, and people are following them off the cliff, with the audacity to complain why everyone is falling.
- "Silence can be deafening".
--OBJ's PAST history of poor communication has amplified the fear. There is conclusive evidence to show that you actually create higher levels of negative discussion/discourse by staying totally silent. More people begin to chat, speculate and negatively bias something that remains silent. OBJ is a text book example of this as well. The company stayed silent on many fronts when some commentary was needed.
--That commentary does NOT need to be daily lengthy commentary, but it does need to balance itself away from total silence.
-- Quarterly one line tweets, posts or web updates on social media, or just the needed time to briefly address concerns are all that is required. This alone could have prevented the literal THOUSANDS of posts here.
--OBJ is one of the most discussed stocks, because it has has so much potential, but had so little to say. The silence created a monstrous roar that still can be seen in the rampant negative naysayers of today.
The only question now is WHEN will OBJ bounce back. Has it reached the bottom of the panic cycle, or is then more to drop? In referece to john templetons quote - are we at the point of maximum pessimism?
we have to be damn close i think.
Personally i see now as a bad time to be out of OBJ. its absolute textbook stock behavior.
Lots of fear, lots of sell off, capacity for massive swings, and no rational reason for its current level other than panic selling.
There will be a correction. More risk out than in IMO, and I for one certainly do not want to be part of the herd mentality.
"Buy the fear sell the greed"
As always all of the above is IMO.
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