I can't claim to know exactly what is going on, but that won;t...

I can't claim to know exactly what is going on, but that won;t stop me having an opinion of course haha. This is a classic buy the rumour, sell the fact reaction, probably mixed with a clever dose of tree shaking by the pre-DFS buyer looking to accumulate.

The new BFS results and deadline would have been well leaked to all and sundry imo over the last few weeks. I was told by one scaly mate over a week ago that the DFS would drop yesterday, although I wasn't given any details. You can bet the numbers were well known by many better connected to anyone in the company as the BFS would have been finished as a number crunching exercise long time ago. If it wasn;t HC it was all over Perth that this new BFS was a huge jump in profitability, NPV and reduction in equity requirements, as well flagged by managemenet in drip feeds over the last month. So many thought they had an inside running and jump on the market, all bought the strongly rising trend looking for a quick profit after release. Add to that all the old holders who averaged down from 30's upwards all looking to take some risk off the table, if not profits on reduced average cost, and it is no surprise that so much selling came in.

That said I have to put my hand up at averaging up (doh) from an already large position yesterday early because the numbers actually exceeded my predictions. What was surprising is the complete lack of buyers, at least I hadn't thought it through enough. Where are the next lot of buyers going to come from? Everybody following the story are full and looking for pay day. Any large funds looking to accumulate the story had been buying this last few weeks but stood back to see what washed out, they weren't as dumb as to chase the announcement like me haha. Well played it must be said, they knew to stand back and let all the natural sellers chase each other down into a buying vacuum then start accumulating at a lower base. The 'market' doesn;t follow min sand miners is seems anyway. What is a zircon anyway haha. One website I follow who posts summary stories of junior releases of all sorts of banal updates still hasn't mentioned SFX, probably don't know they even exist. Buy the rumour, sell the fact! Try not to get too caught up in your own beliefs, the market has it's own way of working whether it makes fundamental sense or not.

On top of all this that equity gap of $143M still needs to be filled and the market will be concerned Bruce will try the pump and CR path if no JV partner is actually lurking. I can tell you it won;t be Iluka or Rio who jumps in. That general fear of dilution and funding short fall will continue to haunt the stock in the short term, although I personally are backing big time that a JV partner on good terms will be found. The project just looks that good. In the mean time, more savvy funds and investors will take the chance to accumulate at much better prices that the last week or so it seems. Remember when the large 200k+ bids came in around 55c (nobody was selling) then jumped to 60c and spent a few days accumulating quite a bit of volume? In my opinion that was genuine long term fund style buying, not part of a pump and dump trade. I could be wornf of course, but I'm calling this mornings high 50's the support line for long term accumulation by savvy players into this profit taking liquidity event. The real upside, and share price valuation clarity, will only come after funding is announced. You know my thoughts on the JV sale price and valuation targets.

I am still buying today..... idiot not I hope. I have enough funds to be able to play a longer game on some stocks and SFX just looks a great long term value play from these levels, even for a mine development hold which is usually not my style. I'd rather make large profits early then move on to the nest good thing. However, at the risk of jinxing SFX, I'm wanting to quote Franpower and say "this looks like a one in a 5 to 10 year opportunity".

Good luck