You'll find very few holders on hotcopper who actually consider that Afterpay has some things that could work against it. I'm happy to list a couple, that could negatively impact revenue:
1. Increase in AUD. If AUD increases compared to the UK and especially the US, revenue in AUD will be negatively impacted.
2. Squeezed margins through conpetition. Competition could squeeze margins, however given Afterpay is in such a dominant position (in terms of customer reach) this is less likely. More relevant to the smaller players in my opinion.
3. Squeezed margins if interest rates go up and funding becomes more expensive
4. If bad debt charge increase, especially relevant in new markets. However, afterpay's business model is pretty good at cutting off bad eggs to keep bad debt charges low.
5. Regulation (I dont see this as much of a threat as other people due to my experience in credit risk modelling).
6. Change in consumer sentiment to the next best thing (again. low probability of this happening anytime soon since BNPL is that "new thing").
7. Competition taking market share (at the moment its Afterpay taking market share so again low probability).
Every business will have some threats to their revenue and to their business model. Only vigilant investors will bother looking for them.
In my opinion the threats and their probabilities (mostly low) are far outweighed by what Afterpay could become. The globally most loved way to pay.
Cheers.
APT Price at posting:
$29.48 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
