Analysts are a funny mob.
All they want is cost out when times are tough, when it gets better, they want growth. Cue bad projects, bad acquisitions, and the next down cycle when supply ramps up because of the need for growth. Then its all about cost out again.
Look at any of the larger companies, where is the growth?
Rio/BHP/FMG will be spending a small fortune just to replenish iron ore capacity, all are gun shy about adding actual iron ore growth after FMGs strange call for intervention 18 months back
BHP has a challenged Potash project and the never-quite-there Olympic Dam expansion. Plus a fading oil and gas business, and Escondida in decline
Rio doesn't have much to talk about either in terms of growth, and wouldn't surprise if Oyu Tolgoi had some skeletons in the closet after the Simandou experience. Plus of course Escondida and a host of Aluminum assets they couldn't dispose of a few years back
FMG faces a potential structural price discount as well as having to run to stand still with replacement capex
Then you have S32 with capex well below depreciation and a growing collection of base metals plays.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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