buyers building, page-44

Dear flight11,

The offer couldn't come from a substantial holder who has been selling recently as they will have to file a notice of change. Further, the valuation of the offer would be too difficult to assess wouldn't it to allow an opinion that any offer was fair and reasonable, unless such offer was clearly above a selected probability of success case. That is, a calculation that it is 10% probable that Block 105 has x amount of resource and Block 120 probably has x amount but the bidder is prepared to buy out on a 20% success case, for example. To my mind there are too many unknowns now to think an offer will be coming.

Imagine the bidder were to succeed in a takeover only to buy a company that has resources that are nowhere near the purchase price. That is not to say they won't make sales, just that the bidder won't recoup their investment. The risk is too great today for takeover talk. I would be interested to read others thoughts.

Frankly, I wouldn't sell even if offered 50c tomorrow. Offer or no offer I am waiting to read the September Quarterly report in late October to determine how long my Christmas holidays will be!